I was on Scott Bishop’s website just now and I came across his recent Twitter post. I found it to be an interesting read and clicked over to RJMetrics to get a further feel for the statistics that Scott laid out and discussed. The gist of these posts was to analyze recent data released on Twitter usage and what it may mean for the future of the online social network. Here are the pertanent results from RJM:

And their conclusions of this data

I would say that these results are a mixed bag of sorts. Twitter is obviously still growing but the regressive rates cited are concerning.

When Twitter began to catch on about a year ago I checked it out and couldn’t see the point. As a regular person it looked like a site dedicated to Facebook status updates. I refrained from getting an account but my partner set up one for our clothing company. I began to think that the only real advantage of Twitter was for brands. It allowed them to connect with users. That seemed to make enough sense.

But it left a bigger problem. Why does an average person care to use Twitter? Who wants to follow the average person? It isn’t like Facebook where you can stalk everybody you know’s life. On Twitter you kind of have to hope your important enough for somebody to want to stalk you. Sounds difficult. Whereas on Facebook all 500 of your friends are accessible to see everything about you, on Twitter maybe 25 of your friends can figure out what you’re eating, which they can also figure out from your Facebook. This was my thinking a year ago as I continued to keep a close eye on the new startup.

It is for this reason that about 6 months ago I said that Twitter would be rendered irrelevant within 2 years. Not completely irrelevant, just Myspace irrelevant. Myspace is still a big deal, you just have to be looking for something specific to get the most out of it. Otherwise you won’t like it because it has become cluttered with so much waste. The days of it being the communication hub died when Facebook stepped on it and it failed to respond.

The bottom line is Twitter has a problem. It is a great networking tool. But most people don’t want to network. They just want to communicate with people they are already friends with. Twitter does not provide that community atmosphere that attracts, and addicts the masses. It fills a niche for connecting people who don’t know each other through things they both want to know about.

About a month ago I finally figured out that Twitter may help me out and I signed up. I still think it will be reduced to Myspace status in 2 years, but I still use Myspace for my brands. Twitter will continue to have a use. But soon the general public will cease signing up for it in droves because most people who sign up sign up because they think its trendy. Shortly thereafter they conclude they can’t use it and they abandon their accounts. What will Twitter do when it isn’t trendy anymore?

Based on the recent progression of social networks, Myspace>Facebook >Twitter(I realize there were sites before Myspace, but I’m only 21), it is safe to conclude the next big social network is right around the corner at which point the only thing holding Twitter or any of the other big 3 up will be its core competencies. Facebook remained steady through Twitter which was predictable. But how will Twitter look after the next wave?

Things can always change. Twitter could reconstruct and evolve as other sites emerge, which Myspace never managed to do. But I predict it will be reduced to a similar state.

The BlackBerry Curve has been the top selling smartphone in North America for a very long time now. Quarter 4 kept the trend going according to IDC Mobile Devices and Technology Trends. I’m not impressed though. Its great they are selling so many devices but the 83xx, which is where I would guess the bulk of these sales came from is about 4 years old and the 85xx should have  never been made IMO. Check out the full list after the jump.

1. RIM – BlackBerry Curve
2. Apple – iPhone 3G S
3. Motorola – DROID
4. Apple – iPhone 3G
5. RIM – BlackBerry Pearl
6. RIM – BlackBerry Bold
7. RIM – BlackBerry Storm
8. Palm – Pre
9. RIM – BlackBerry Tour
10. T-Mobile – myTouch 3G

RIM has been holding down 40-50% of this list for almost two years now and in that time they’re stock price has taken a dive into the dumpster. What people really want to see is some creativity out of them. Hopefully they have something new and exciting coming in 2010.

I am somewhat surprised the DROID is third on this list. But at the same time it does make a fair amount of sense. After the iPhone and Curve things tend to be wide open. Phones like the Palm Pre, which I would buy over the DROID in a heartbeat are relegated to terrible carriers like Sprint that stunt their sales and phones like my beloved BOLD are more viewed as business devices and do not sell as well in the consumer market. I look for the Pre and Pixi to both make a move in Q1 now that they are on multiple carriers.

Amazon just reported their Quarter 4 earnings at the end of the week and it came out that they have already sold over 3 million Kindles, a year before they were suppose to. The total is about 500,000 more than analysts expected they would have moved by this time in the year. Whoa!

The day the Apple iPad was unveiled, some friends and I were engaged in a discussion about the validity of its market and use to consumers. I was trying to explain that it would instantly become a player in the e-reader market. I cited the success of the Kindle as evidence of the power of people who read(my friends confessed to never reading anything and thus did not understand) as buyers of these types of products.

One person asked me how much the Kindle cost. I like to read the old fashioned way and have never even considered reading a book electronically. Thus, I had no clue how much it cost and said $50! Upon research this weekend, it turns out Amazon lists it at $259 or $489 for the DX version. I would never have guessed they would be able to sell so many at that price point. But I find it to be even more evidence that the iPad will sell very, very well.

Reports are already surfacing of the first strikes in what is shaping up to be a full out book war with Amazon pulling all Macmillan books from their shelves. Apple and Amazon going at it is bound to be interesting. My guess is Amazon is in trouble. Barnes & Noble is the least of their worries at this point.

I fully expect sales of the Kindle to slow. In the meantime however, the evidence that they have sold over 3 million units is strong and extremely impressive. A bit of a buffer against the competition if you will.

Amazon sells just about everything, not just Kindles. As a whole they should be just fine. I do have to wonder how much this iPad will hurt their mystique though. People look to the Kindle as a sort of gauge of the power of the company and if they start to lose e-reader market share it could really frighten shareholders. Then again maybe it wouldn’t. Their dominance of the online marketplace will continue, and that may be all that matters.

The Cellular Guru took offense to people calling their picture of the Magnum prototype a fake and released this video to prove it does exist. I’m glad he likes to silence the critics because this is an awesome video. Let’s hope when the real iteration of this concept does drop it doesn’t contain that awful Surepress technology that scared CrackBerry addicts everywhere into revolting against the BlackBerry Storm.

This is reported to be an image of the upcoming BlackBerry Dakota. Talks about this phone began a while ago. It is unclear if this is a current picture of the prototype or not.

It basically looks like the BlackBerry Bold 9000 without a trackball or directional pad. I hope that this is the form factor because I like the size of my Bold and its cosmetic build. This phone is highly anticipated in the CrackBerry community. It is believed to be a full qwerty device that also features a touchscreen. The concept is not new but for Research in Motion it can be a game changing device. It has been a while since RIM came out with a new innovative device to excite the tech community. The Storm is at least 2 years old and was widely panned by Berry Addicts and mobile critics alike. Its Surepress technology is truly hit or miss with consumers.

The Dakota could signal RIM is willing to continue to push the creative boundaries with the BlackBerry line which could be exactly what the stock market wants to see. As of late the stock has been drowning in inactivity. While Apple is viewed as a great creator of new devices and mastering new products, RIM is viewed as faithful and reliable. Which serves well for profits, but not so well for investors who know that technology is driven by what’s new. RIM needs this device to do well. Hopefully it comes out sooner than later.

I was bored in class earlier and turned to my trusty BlackBerry for entertainment. I read a host of stock and tech articles and one in particular I found interesting was on the power struggle between Google and Apple. The latest news in the battle of the superpower tech companies is that Apple is rumored to be in talks with Microsoft to replace Google as the default search engine on the iPhone.

This could hurt Google because they do make revenue off of ads placed along search results on mobile devices. It seems like the latest in a battle between the two creative giants. Google keeps trying to step on Apple’s toes and this is what is going to continue to happen to them if they do not back off. My friends who have iPhones have long been complaining about Google Voice and their inability to use it since Apple pulled all compatible apps from the App Store. Now it looks like they will be using Bing by default.

As a consumer of a BlackBerry, I could care less about these issues. But as a person who follows the stock market and at one point held stock in Apple I think these matters are important. Anybody who owns stock in one of these three companies should follow these battles and consider the effects they could hold for current and potential shareholders. Google has taken a bit of a beating lately and I think it is in part because of their attempts to play on Apple’s turf. Their Android devices, in particular the Nexus One have been disappoints that have failed to move the stock upward and in actuality have brought the stock down.

Google is still a very good stock but these games they are trying to play could continue to drop their stock price. If this happens they could actualy become an even more attractive buy as people may begin to see the stock as under-priced. In the meantime I’d keep an eye on Apple. I think the stock is going to $300.